Eastern Africa Pledged in Mombasa to Act Before Disasters Strike, With Triggers Set by 2027. Sudan Is Named in the Declaration. Start Its Roadmap and Take It to COP31.

On 30 October, seven IGAD states, Sudan among them, adopted the Mombasa Ministerial Declaration on Anticipatory Action. By 2027 each is to set trigger-based protocols, with pre-arranged finance, for its priority hazards. 3Bi found no published Sudanese roadmap. Sudan should start one and take it to COP31.

Ministers from seven IGAD member states, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda, adopted the Mombasa Ministerial Declaration on Anticipatory Action at the Second Eastern Africa Dialogue Platform in Mombasa, Kenya, on 30 October 2026. (Illustration: 3Bi)

3Bi Situation Report — Climate & Energy Desk | First edition | Information cut-off: 3 November 2026, 04:00 UTC

Headline Fact

On 30 October 2026, ministers responsible for disaster risk management and humanitarian affairs from seven IGAD member states, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda, adopted the Mombasa Ministerial Declaration on Anticipatory Action. Its title sets the goal: “Institutionalising Anticipatory Action for a Resilient Eastern Africa” (IGAD, Mombasa Ministerial Declaration, 30 October 2026). Anticipatory action means acting on a forecast before a drought, flood or disease outbreak hits, using plans, triggers and money agreed in advance. The declaration’s firmest commitment has a date: by 2027, each country is to set nationally agreed anticipatory action protocols for its priority hazards, with trigger thresholds, pre-agreed actions, clear responsibilities and pre-arranged financing, tested through regular simulation exercises (IGAD, Declaration, commitment 18). Sudan’s Humanitarian Aid Commission was represented at the ministerial segment by its Deputy Commissioner, Ahmed Mohamed Osman Hassan (IGAD, Executive Secretary’s opening remarks, 30 October 2026). The pledge is regional. The work it creates is national. COP31 opens in Antalya in six days.

Timeline

• October 2021: Sudan’s updated first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) lists “strengthening preparedness and early warning system” for floods and “strengthened climate monitoring and early warning systems” and weather-indexed crop insurance for agriculture among its adaptation measures (UNFCCC, Sudan Updated First NDC, 12 October 2021).

• 2024: The first Eastern Africa Dialogue Platform adopts the 2024 Mombasa Declaration, a shared regional vision for anticipatory action with 17 commitments (Anticipation Hub, 29 October 2026).

• November 2024: Sudan launches the UN “Early Warnings for All” initiative nationally in two workshops with UNDRR, WMO, IFRC and ITU. Participants assess gaps in data, forecasting, communication and preparedness, and set out initial steps for a multi-year national early warning roadmap (UNDRR, 13 November 2024).

• 17 September 2026: IGAD issues a High-Level Call to Action on El Niño preparedness, asking member states to release anticipatory action once agreed thresholds are reached (IGAD, Call to Action, 17 September 2026).

• 24 September 2026: FAO reports June–September rainfall about 20% and 30% below average in Sennar and Gedaref, two states that grow about a quarter of Sudan’s sorghum (FAO GIEWS Country Brief: Sudan, 24 September 2026).

• 28–30 October 2026: More than 400 people from 44 countries meet in Mombasa for the Second Eastern Africa Dialogue Platform on Anticipatory Action (EADP2), organised by IGAD, the Government of Kenya and the IGAD Regional Technical Working Group on Anticipatory Action (Anticipation Hub, 2 November 2026).

• 30 October 2026: Ministers adopt the Mombasa Ministerial Declaration (IGAD, 30 October 2026).

What We Know / What We Don’t

We know what the seven governments promised. The declaration’s commitments ask each state to write anticipatory action into its disaster laws, policies and plans, with clear mandates for who sets triggers and who activates them. They also ask states to turn National Anticipatory Action Roadmaps into nationally led and financed plans with timelines and targets, and to link early warning systems to early action through predefined triggers and standard operating procedures. On money, governments commit to “progressively increase domestic investment” in preparedness and anticipatory action, set national financing targets, and report on allocations, releases and spending. They also commit to coordinated cross-border plans for shared hazards such as drought, floods, disease outbreaks and desert locusts (IGAD, Declaration, commitments 1–2, 5, 8–10). IGAD’s climate centre, ICPAC, is asked to build a regional monitoring and reporting framework and convene annual progress reviews (commitment 16).

We know where the region stands. Since 2024, five national roadmaps have been developed and four launched, in Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan and Uganda. Three government policy documents now include anticipatory action (Anticipation Hub, 2 November 2026). Participants were also frank about money: resources for anticipatory action “are not yet allocated within countries’ own financial budgets”, and support remains almost entirely project-based and donor-funded. A German Embassy representative suggested that governments build “pipelines” of fundable programmes to attract international climate and environment funds (Anticipation Hub, 2 November 2026). Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary for Environment, Climate Change and Forestry, Dr Deborah Barasa, put it plainly: “early warning without early financing is only awareness” (Anticipation Hub, 2 November 2026).

We know Sudan has a base to build on. The Anticipation Hub lists one active anticipatory action framework in Sudan, targeting 140,000 people with a budget of US$800,000, and five activations since 2023, run by Start Network and Save the Children’s Sudan office (Anticipation Hub, Sudan country page, accessed 3 November 2026). Sudan’s NDC already names early warning and crop insurance as adaptation measures, and the 2024 Early Warnings for All workshops sketched the first steps of a national roadmap.

We do not know whether Sudan has a national anticipatory action roadmap or a national technical working group. Sudan is not among the four countries with a launched roadmap, and 3Bi found no published Sudanese roadmap. Nor do we know which country developed the fifth roadmap, which priority hazards Sudan would choose, or which ministry would hold the trigger. The Humanitarian Aid Commission represented Sudan in Mombasa. The Sudan Meteorological Authority, the Higher Council for Environment and Natural Resources (Sudan’s climate focal institution) and the finance ministry would also need a role. We have not seen a Sudanese statement on the declaration.

Implications

In our reading, the declaration turns a slogan into a deadline. “Act before disasters” has been said in the region for years. Mombasa adds a date, 2027, and a test of whether a country has met it: written protocols, triggers, named responsibilities and money agreed in advance. Sudan is one of the seven governments in the text. If nothing moves at home, a commitment made in Sudan’s name will be missed.

The timing also suits the climate talks. At COP31, developing countries will press for assurances on the pledge to triple adaptation finance, while the 59 indicators of the Global Goal on Adaptation are refined before COP32 in Addis Ababa (Carbon Brief, 2 November 2026). Funders look for adaptation they can see working. A trigger-based plan that releases money before a flood or a failed season is one of the clearest examples, and the Mombasa discussions made the same point about building fundable pipelines.

In our view, three low-cost steps follow. First, Sudan could name a lead institution and convene a small national anticipatory action working group, joining the Humanitarian Aid Commission, the Meteorological Authority and HCENR with the agriculture and finance ministries and the groups already running frameworks in the country. Second, it could start a national roadmap that joins the early warning steps of 2024 with the early warning and crop insurance measures in its NDC, so that one document serves both its disaster and climate commitments. Third, it could choose one or two priority hazards, for example seasonal floods or drought in the rain-fed sorghum belt, and draft trigger protocols well before the 2027 deadline. A short version could go to Antalya as an adaptation proposal ready for funding.

3Bi is not claiming that a declaration will stop the next flood, or that money will follow a plan. The point is narrower. Sudan is named in a regional declaration with a deadline, already has early warning in its climate plan, and has frameworks run by others on the ground. Bringing these together is a planning task, and it can start this month.

Watch Next

• 9–20 November 2026: COP31 in Antalya (UNFCCC, COP31 page). Watch adaptation finance and the Global Goal on Adaptation indicators, and whether Sudan refers to early warning or anticipatory action in its statements.

• Coming months: ICPAC’s regional monitoring and reporting framework and the first annual progress review under the declaration (IGAD, Declaration, commitment 16).

• By 2027: National anticipatory action protocols for priority hazards in each of the seven states (IGAD, Declaration, commitment 18). Watch for a Sudanese national roadmap or working group.

Sourcing & Next Update

Primary sources: IGAD, “Mombasa Ministerial Declaration on Anticipatory Action” (30 October 2026); IGAD, “Opening Remarks by the IGAD Executive Secretary at the Ministerial Segment of EADP2” (30 October 2026); Anticipation Hub, “Momentum in Mombasa: highlights from the 2nd Eastern Africa Dialogue Platform” (2 November 2026); Anticipation Hub, “Reflecting on regional progress at the 2nd Eastern Africa Dialogue Platform” (29 October 2026); Anticipation Hub, “Anticipatory action in Sudan” country page (accessed 3 November 2026); UNDRR, “Strengthening early warning systems in Sudan” (13 November 2024); IGAD, High-Level Call to Action on El Niño Preparedness, Anticipatory Action and Resilience (17 September 2026); FAO GIEWS Country Brief: Sudan (24 September 2026); UNFCCC, Sudan Updated First NDC (12 October 2021); Carbon Brief, “Interactive: Who wants what at the COP31 climate change summit” (2 November 2026); UNFCCC, COP31 page. For methodology questions or to propose a correction, contact 3Bi’s Research Team via 3bisudan.org.

Next update expected when Sudan publishes a national anticipatory action roadmap or protocol, or when ICPAC releases the declaration’s first progress review.

3Bi Research Team. This piece was produced through 3Bi’s automated daily publications workflow, which monitors regional and international climate and energy reporting.

This publication is produced with support from 3Bi’s institutional donors; see the full funder list at 3bisudan.org.